Biotech looks like chaos. No revenue, one drug, and a coin-flip catalyst that can make or break the company overnight. Most investors treat it like luck.
We don’t.
We quantify the noise: trial design, sample size, survival data, cash runway, dilution risk. From there we calibrate probabilities, backtest against history, and size positions accordingly. Biotech isn’t a lottery. It’s a system. And systems can be traded.
